News Boosts Stainless Steel Prices to Stop Declines and Rise, Cost Side Remains Weak with Inversion Narrowing [SMM Analysis]

This week, stainless steel spot prices rose slightly, while production costs pulled back, helping stainless steel mills reduce losses. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, cash costs based on current raw material prices fell by about 49.9 yuan/mt, with a loss ratio of 3.55%; when calculated using raw material inventory costs, cash costs dropped by about 105.38 yuan/mt, and the loss ratio remained at 2.9%.

On the nickel-based raw material cost side, high-grade NPI prices ended last week's upward trend and resumed a decline. Although most domestic smelters were already selling at a loss, market supply remained ample. Combined with weak year-end demand in the stainless steel off-season and poor acceptance of high-priced raw materials, recent transactions for high-grade NPI were scarce, weighing on prices. However, news of tightened nickel ore approval procedures in Indonesia has raised expectations of raw material supply tightness, which could support high-grade NPI prices. As of Friday, high-grade NPI with 10–12% grade fell by 4.5 yuan/mtu to 884 yuan/mtu. In the stainless steel scrap market, stainless steel futures fell significantly during the week, spot prices remained weak, and high-grade NPI prices weakened again, leading to a further decline in stainless steel scrap prices. Although stainless steel scrap maintained a better economic advantage over high-grade NPI. As of Friday, 304 off-cuts prices in east China were largely stable, with the latest offer around 9,100 yuan/mt.

On the chrome-based raw material cost side, high-carbon ferrochrome prices stopped falling and strengthened this week. During the week, TISCO announced tender prices for high-carbon ferrochrome for December 2025 and January 2026, reducing them by 100 yuan/mt (50% metal content) and 200 yuan/mt (50% metal content), respectively. The declines were relatively small, weakening market pessimism. In addition, recent partial production cuts and shutdowns among ferrochrome producers in south China alleviated the oversupply of ferrochrome. As of Friday, high-carbon ferrochrome prices in Inner Mongolia rose by 75 yuan/mt (50% metal content) to 8,150 yuan/mt (50% metal content).